COVID19 -- Lockdown or not

There are too many statistics, dashboards, and data about COVID19. Although, the numbers are increasing, we can say that lockdown helped to control the spread. We are in the lockdown from 22nd March. It's been almost 45-50 days. In these days, wherever I see, many people are saying we should be at home. The Lockdown should continue and shops shouldn't be open as people go out to buy things. Everyday, I get WhatsApp forwards stating that there is corona outside, and its at some stage so it will increase exponentially for the next few days. We have be refrain from going outside for morning/evening walks. It feels like we have gone into a phase of homeostasis. 

So let me ask a question. If something is working, should we continue doing the same thing? So if we try to answer this question from the perspective of lockdown, the answer is yes. The argument is that lockdown has helped the numbers keeping down so we should do even more strict lockdown. Now, let me start with different question. What if we slowly release the lockdown and observe the numbers? Perhaps it will increase with same rate? or then numbers will grow even faster. or it might come down as well. Unless we try that, we will not know the difference, right? Here is an interesting study from Wuhan of Germany. In the study, researcher mentioned that "There is no significant risk of catching the disease when you go shopping. Severe outbreaks of the infection were always result of people being closer together over a longer period of time". 

I think we are looking at the data too simplistic way. We are just plotting graphs of date vs cases or gender ratio or ever death rates. Long back my professor taught me that we should look for the factors which are not only directly linked/affected but also affects indirectly. We need to understand multiple dependant factors. I am sure we have huge number of jobless people because of lockdown. Do we know how many of them do not have enough food/money for survival? How many might die because of hunger? how many of them turn to immoral ways to satisfy their hunger? How many will run into psychological issues? When we account that factors is the lockdown worth?

The point I am trying to make is that there has to be some strategy for coming out of it and we need to learn living with the COVID19. It will be part of our life for some time and eventually it will go away. I was involved with a needless discussion on FB, when one person replied that Wuhan had 72 days of lockdown. Pune had only 45 days. But then Wuhan had about 75,000 cases. Pune has about 2,500 cases. What is the proportion. There is seriously lack of research in the COVID19. We have to do what Indians are best at. Trial and Error.